Where next for the web?

I recently heard the web compared to ‘Lego’ because the plastic blocks could be linked together to create some impressive structures. By inter-locking these bricks it has proved possible to create a remarkable map of human knowledge and its ambitions.

But the web pioneers who use this analogy are far from content. They believe that the information could do so much more.

The search engines that map the world of hypertext use a set of rules to imply the significance of a web page. Most common is the ‘page rank’ rule, which interprets a link to a page as a vote of confidence. This method has been refined to give more weight to votes from pages that are themselves popular.

Alas, the search engines can be fooled and if you try booking a flight or to find a hotel you can see how the page-ranking system has been hijacked by some booking brokers. The create a sub-web of linked sites which portray themselves as portals but they are just agents looking for a commission on any booking you make.

Web 2.0

So the web is moving on to Web 2.0. This needs some new users as well as some advanced technology. Humans need to be willing to follow their nose and use the technology to find what they are looking for inside their site. For those brought up in highly structured environments where one thing leads to another, the flexible way that pages are generated and options offered can be disconcerting.

Instead of a structure imposed by the site designer, the technology takes on the role of linking the content. This means that users can now provide the significant content for Web 2.0 sites, as the technology will sort out the organisation. The site designer just provides a space plus some limited structure, and will probably invite people to tag their content to make it easier to find. But after that, it is the users who are empowered to provide much of the actual content.

Views on this democratisation of the web are polarised. The traditional view is that those with gravitas and ‘authority’ should provide the content. However the modern user wants to join debates and share their views with others. The new world of the web is hell for those who hold to the ‘elders and betters’ view of the world. Not surprisingly, it is the young who have led the way with Web 2.0 sites such as MySpace and Ebay.

The technology has allowed this to happen because it has the power to compose pages on demand rather than just digging out the ready-made page. Faster and cheaper storage is matching processing power, where speed increases and cost declines.

Web 3?

But as the users adapt to the Web 2.0 way of working, there is already talk of web 3. This has grown out of the web’s founding intellect, Sir Tim Berners-Lee’s, call for a semantic web that can use the information to answer real questions. This is not ‘search engine plus’ but a wholly new way of presenting the information.

Over the horizon the web will hope to provide accurate answers to very specific questions. So instead of looking up the page and seeking out the answer, as we do now, the web of the future will hope to save you even that effort.

But that is still in the future. The next step now is Web 2.0. This is an empowering technology which gives people access not simply as users but also as providers. The challenge will be to sort out the unimaginable quantities of information that this will make available.

Audio

The other change that is coming on fast is audio information. A previous generation relied on the radio for its news, views and entertainment. The radio is making a comeback. In 2006, Google’s chief executive Eric E Schmidt voiced an ambition to have about 1,000 staff supporting radio. But this will be ‘radio on demand’. The user, not the radio station manager, will decide on their programme schedule.

Radio can be delivered to mobile phones and it is much easier to enjoy and audio book as you are bumped and jostled on the regular run to work. If you are lucky enough to get a seat then reading a book is an option for those with a steady hand and the ability to read in low light levels. Radio works for those on the move.

So while the boffins try to work out ways to extract more from the web, users will enjoy unprecedented access to music and speech. The Really Simple Syndication (RSS) buttons that are now appearing on a web page near you, let you decide what you hear. RSS offers you new material when it appears but it is you as the user who decides what you will accept.

While the boffins continue their hunt for ways extract information, users will be throwing a spanner into their works, as the audio content is a harder place to hunt for meaning than text. But they are working on voice recognition and it is already very accurate especially.

But the future is in the hands of the users. It is the contribution that they make and the way they choose to use the web that will determine how the web develops in the next few years. For users, the future is empowering and fun. But for marketers, rights-holders, including authors, and all those with a heavy investment in the media, the way the web is developing makes the future difficult to predict.

Chas Jones 2006

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